Possible Reasons for the Theft Surge

There could be a number of reasons for the rise and fall of these figures over the 11 year period. Unemployment, cuts in government spending, cost of living and drug abuse could all be the triggers in theft from shops in Ireland. My research which I have outlined on the next page, examines what I believe are the main reasons for Ireland’s theft surge. The figures suggest that the fall of the Celtic Tiger and subsequent recession left thousands unemployed and possibly inclined to turn to theft in search for money.

There are also two graphs which visualise the government’s surplus and deficits between 2003 and 2014. The severe drop from 2008 onwards could be seen as a determining factor in the rise of thefts from shops. The bailout of the banks in 2010 is particularly noticeable and offers us the picture of how far our economy fell. The fall in theft from shops in 2011 and 2012 is interesting as Ireland was still in the doldrums of recession. However the figures on emigration in Ireland seem to suggest our heightening emigration levels could be behind the decrease in theft from shops. With tens of thousands of people leaving the country it is no surprise our theft rates in shops took a dive.

 This graph focuses on particular months within each year from 2006-2010. The months selected show the live register at its highest rate in each of the five years. The summer months of July and August stand out as a bad time for the Irish economy. August in particular features three times over the five years. The only exception during this period is 2008 where December held the highest rate of unemployment. This is more than likely due to the worldwide economic collapse only a few weeks previously.

The Rise in Theft 2013 & 2014

The increase in theft from shops over these two years is harder to understand given the improvements in the live register and the upward trend of the government’s surplus/deficit. However, some preliminary figures which the CSO have released on population change give us some indications as to possibly why our theft levels in shops have risen in 2013 and 2014.

It is thought that there has been an increase of nearly 5% of immigrants entering Ireland over the last two years. This figure combined with the apparent 7% drop in emigration could be linked to the spike in theft from shops. The emigration levels in particular are interesting as the rate dropped from just under 90,000 people to under 82,000.

These are only preliminary figures which will be revised when the next census takes place in 2016 but nonetheless offer us an indication of what may be behind the rise of theft in shops. The graphs on the next page offer a visual of the figures released by the CSO.

 As the graph shows, the level of immigrants jumped from under 60,000 people in 2013 to just over 60,000 in 2014. This increase could well be a legitimate reason for theft in Irish shops peaking last year.

 This graph gives a clear picture of the decreasing amounts of people leaving the island which again could be a reason for a rise in theft from Irish shops. While the government deficit has improved over these two years, Ireland is still in a fragile economic state and many of its citizens have not yet felt the improvement that others may have.

Source: CSO